News
Snowy Winter, Warming Planet? The Climate Change Debate
By Ryan Fennell
As the weather begins to warm after a winter that brought the heaviest snowfalls this area has seen in several years, a global debate continues to rage over the validity of global climate change and the extent of human contribution. Some are claiming that the current conditions are unprecedented in the planet's history.
However, there are others who say that it is not unprecedented at all and that the Earth's temperature is well within its "normal" range over the past 10,000 years.
"The warming we've had in the twentieth century is not alarming and it's not unprecedented," said James Taylor, senior fellow of environmental policy at the Heartland Institute in Chicago.
"It may or may not be primarily caused by humans but we don't have enough evidence to say that just yet."
Taylor noted that between approximately 1,300 and 1,850 the Earth experienced what is known as the Little Ice Age that challenges the idea that the Earth is currently in an era of unprecedented change.
"It's important to keep in mind that the Little Ice Age from approximately 1300 to 1850 was the coldest climatic period during that past 10,000 years. That fact that the Earth warmed approximately 0.6 degrees Celsius during the twentieth century is not very alarming considering that the baseline for that warming was an extremely cold period," Taylor said. "The Earth is still significantly below its long term temperature average looking back over the past 10,000 years."
According to Taylor the data is taken out of context when it's reported that these warm periods now are the warmest years on record.
"That's only the case if we consider the record to go back to the Little Ice Age which is only 150 years," said Taylor. "If we look at the past 10,000 years we find that human civilization developed and flourished during much warmer temperatures than exist today."
According to Taylor a secondary issue to consider besides context would be causation.
"Most of the warming of the twentieth century occurred prior to World War II and humans were not emitting much carbon dioxide then so really we're looking at the latter half of the twentieth century in which human causation may be either predominant or contributory, but even if humans caused all the warming of the late twentieth century, we're still warming at a very modest pace that doesn't threaten to put us in unprecedented warm temperatures any time soon."
"We must see some very damaging effects to really justify the economic hardship that would be caused by global warming legislation," Taylor added.
According to New Jersey State Climatologist David Robinson global climate change is much more than just warming temperatures.
"It's more than warming. We've seen evidence in air temperatures, ocean temperatures, extent of Arctic sea ice, in early loss of snow cover in Spring, in the change in the frequency of large rainfall events, a faster rise in sea level, and retreating mountain glaciers. That's just some of the samples."
Robinson said that evidence of climate change is not necessarily going to be present in every particular variable or in every particular region, or even in every particular year.
"But, we're seeing change over years and several decades amongst multiple variables," Robinson said. "It's that combination of all of it. The point is there are all these different relationships within the climate system and you can't just look at them in one dimension."
Robinson said that changes are happening very quickly on Earth's physical time frame but the changes might not occur in a step-by-step fashion but rather things might hit tipping points, which could cause things to change rapidly.
"The climate system has changed plenty on its own" on a scale of thousands of years, Robinson said. "We're talking about changes that are |happening in decades."
Robinson pointed to observations that have been made and models that have been created to attempt to foresee what the changes might be expected in the coming century.
"That's our cloudy crystal ball," Robinson said. "You've got observations that tell you something's happening, you've got theory that supports the reason why it's happening and you have got models that help explain that humans have already had an impact in the last several decades and are likely to continue to have an ever-increasing impact on the climate system."
"Skeptics will say the climate has changed without humans. That's true. That doesn't negate the fact that the climate system can change with the effect of humans," Robinson continued. "Skeptics will say it was snowy this winter, how can we have climate change? That's a total misunderstanding of the variability of the climate system." Robinson said the complexity of the change contributes to the skepticism.
According to Robinson the changes are taking place in a rapid time frame in terms of the physical world but at a slow enough pace that leads to further skepticism.
"It's a tough pitch to make because the time scales are such that people have more pressing issues," Robinson said. "If I'm out of work or my savings fell by half I'm going to be a lot more concerned about that in the short term than I am about climate change over the coming decade."
"Whether it was warmer 1,000 years ago for naturally reasons or not, that's not why it's gotten warmer in the last 50 (years)," Robinson said. "It's cherry-picking facts that fit one unproven belief that humans can't be having an impact on the climate. I don't understand why people can't understand that humans have an impact and are having an impact."
"I believe the evidence is very compelling. The theory is there and the models are there. When you combine them all together it's rather undeniable."
